Cautious Optimism; No Complacency

Summer is quickly becoming a distant memory. The air smells of Fall, we celebrated the Jewish New Year with family and friends, days are getting shorter, and the rhythms of life around here have already changed.

In Boston, traffic is back to its normal dysfunction as ≈250,000 students are back, joined by the faculty and all the vacationers who milk summer for all they can get in New England.

And the election is 46 days away, and by the end of next week six states will already be voting.

Today, we share how we’re feeling about November’s election prospects and write about what we think one can still do to continue to move things forward, to help bend the arc toward justice. Or at least inch it toward sanity; justice is a longer-term project with the pace of authoritarianism and the devolution of our democracy.

Cautiously optimistic. But nothing can be left to chance, as the threats we are witnessing won’t end on November 4.

We are going to need everyone engaged to win, to seat the new House and Senate come January, and then to hold elected officials accountable. We will need massive organizing between now and election day to win, and to overcome attempts to subvert turnout and the results. And then, massive resistance prepared for what will follow.

Why Are We Optimistic?

In short, the winds’ direction is clear and they are blowing hard.

• Consistent polling across the board. Trump’s approval is at genuine record lows (all the polls and signs). These are not rose-colored soft numbers; they are consistent signs of deep erosion of his popularity with his shrinking base and with Independents. On all the issues that most animate people today – the economy, the war, immigration — voters now trust Dems.
• Republicans are panicked and cornered by the Narcissist-in-Chief. Their own strategists are calling their midterm strategy a gimmick, even a trap. Watch a Republican House member Trump has long counted as a staunch ally break loudly with him: Rep. María Elvira Salazar (R-FL) released a direct-to-camera ad this week criticizing his deportation agenda. They’re scared. And for good reason: he can’t center anyone but himself and has the bully pulpit. NYT article (gift link).
• We choose not to hang on each twist and turn. Take the USPS and mail-in voting saga, for example: the Supreme Court killed it, finally for 2026, defeating the Trump administration’s effort to restrict and control mail-ballot restrictions. For now. Justice Kavanaugh’s concurring opinion includes, “there is at least a fair prospect that the final rule falls within the Postal Service’s statutory authority.” They’ll be back, but we won’t twist in the wind until they are. There’s plenty of work to do in the interim.
• The quality and coordination of the legal, organizing, and messaging work from so many organizations has never been stronger. They are doing great work. But they need help. As MVP (and many others) are capturing concisely, we must all help make 2026 Too Big To Rig. Tom heard representatives of the ESRN – which topped our March giving list – say that more than 1,000 national, state and local organizations have joined the nonpartisan network.

Admittedly, it feels strange to say “optimistic” in these times of war, immigration atrocities and economic devastation. So many people are being hurt. We have lost plenty of sleep, and have learned more about the geography of the Arabian Peninsula than ever before.

Why Are We Still Cautious?

In our lifetimes, we have just never seen this level of crazy and evil.

• The forces we are fighting have never been stronger — kleptocracy, authoritarianism, the destruction of norms and institutions, of checks and balances. We fully expect increased panic and increased shenanigans as November nears.
• The federal government has been weaponized. FBI. DOJ. DHS. It will build until firmly checked.
• Change takes years. Cycles. Decades. This is already a fight for 2028.
• Our goals are unlikely to be fully met in 2028, clearly. But it won’t ever happen without all of us joining in fully. What we fundamentally seek isn’t just one win. It’s a strong, longer-lasting trifecta that can make big reforms. To win these, we’ll need to not just win elections, but have a massive movement holding the winners accountable for action!

For example, with just a simple majority in both houses, and a President’s signature, the following is possible – with gratitude to Indivisible’s leaders who published We Are Indivisible: A Blueprint for Democracy After Trump in late 2019. 2019. Sigh.

We must:

• Eliminate the Filibuster (step one)
• Expand Statehood (and the Senate) to D.C. and Puerto Rico.
• Reform the federal courts. Expand the Supreme Court. Create term limits for judges (including SC justices). Create an automated, nonpartisan judicial nomination process.
• Expand the House. Make it more representative. Post 1920 census there were ≈244k constituents for each Rep. In 1970? ≈467k. 2020? ≈761k. 1789? ≈60k.
• Restore Voting Rights. Establish Automatic Voter Registration, make Election Day a national holiday, and restore the Voting Rights Act! (While we’re at it, for those who have served their time as well.)
• Restore Fairness. Enforce stricter media antitrust laws. Re-establish net neutrality protections. Fund independent, non-market-driven local journalism.

Those of you who have fought for fundamental rights we deem obvious know all too well: these fights and rights can again be lost as well as won. Voting rights. Abortion rights. Marriage rights. Bodily autonomy. None of it is permanent unless we continue to fight to make it so.

So — What Are the Best Things Any of Us Can Do Now?!

Give More, if you can. We’re giving more now. Yes, we said “all by April.” And we gave what we felt we could this year at the time. But we decided to give additional gifts to Indivisible, Black Voters Matter, MVP, and Missouri’s People Not Politicians. And to make our first gift to The Movement Cooperative*. We had to change other plans to do it, but we decided to leave no stone unturned.

(We’ve added TMC to our giving recommendations that we first shared as a resource in August.)

Find Hope & Impact. Not just for our democracy, those that are hurting, and future generations, but also for you: get inspired and keep your spirits up, along with your conviction and impact!

Whomever you might choose, join in to help boost turnout or fundraising. You will find and hear from some of the amazing, passionate, inspirational leaders and fellow travelers. You can just attend an event, or you can volunteer to co-host and help drive turnout for these online events!

There are also great opportunities to sit at home and become one of the thousands of important part-time cogs in the enormous machine of election turnout, voter persuasion or ballot curing – calling voters to inform them they need to fix a signature mismatch, e.g., and helping them get it done so their vote is counted!

Some immediate opportunities:

1. Help with Voter Persuasion and Turnout

Seed The Vote is perhaps the most effective place to put your shoulder to the wheel for direct impact on voter turnout and persuasion. They are recruiting volunteers to knock doors, phonebank as well as to recruit other friends & family, fundraise, and help out behind the scenes. They get rave reviews for organization and putting folks to work in satisfying and effective ways. Sign up to get involved — info sessions and volunteer roles are both there.

Working Families Party does more than organize and endorse candidates. They operate Virtual Phone Banks fighting back against voter marginalization and confusion, especially across the South. They are intent on taking back the House and building margins and organizing momentum, before, during and between elections. Sign up for shifts.

2. Join a Donor Organizing Community, Attend Great Webinars, Raise Funds for Impact

Movement Voter Project:

Recently: 800+ people turned out for an all-volunteer organized Conversation with Ken Burns. Ken was insightful and inspirational on many levels. His ability to put the current crises and divisions into historical context brought us real comfort, and hope. Watch the recording (requires passcode: p^iL#5r5).
Upcoming: 10/22 — For folks in the medical world, or any human, learn in conversation with the extraordinary Atul Gawande. This event is presented by the all-volunteer Healthcare Leaders For Democracy. RSVP. Invite friends (aka, co-host – it’s easy!)

Force Multiplier:

Recently: They held a big online session with Troy Jackson, who is looking like he could very well – finally – be Susan Collins’ slayer!
Upcoming: 9/24, 8–9 ET: Dr. Abdul El-Sayed (Michigan Senate). Sign up.

Don’t hesitate to reach out with feedback or questions, as always. Thank you for all you are doing.

Tom & Julia